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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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CATEGORIES
News
- The trade war escalates in full swing, and analysis of short-term trends of spot
- The euro plummeted continuously, and the market price approached the 1.1400 mark
- Global crude oil supply pattern changes, non-agricultural outcry, gold prices hi
- Trump stresses that Europe stops buying Russian oil, investors take profits to l
- Australian dollar continues to rise after strong wage growth
market news
The expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable to gold. Can the technical side be driven by the technology?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The expectation of interest rate cuts is more beneficial to gold, can the technical side be promoted relay?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (August 5), spot gold fell into a sideways fluctuation after rebounding strongly for three consecutive days. The trading was around $3,375 during the European period, and the short-term trend showed a tug-of-war. The slight rebound of the US dollar index suppressed gold prices, but market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in September still provide support for gold. In addition, global trade uncertainty has not yet dissipated, causing a clear decline in demand for safe-haven.
Finance:
The recent upward momentum of gold www.xmspot.comes from weak US economic data and rising expectations for interest rate cuts. The non-farm employment data released last week showed that the labor market was significantly weaker, strengthening the market's bet on the Federal Reserve's opening of a new round of interest rate cuts in September. The CMEFedWatch tool shows that the market's expectations for the probability of a rate cut in September have exceeded 90%. At the same time, U.S. factory orders fell sharply by 4.8% in June, further highlighting economic fatigue.
On the other hand, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order last week to raise tariffs on imported goods from dozens of countries, with the minimum tax rate of countries with trade deficits with the United States reaching 15%. Relevant measures are about to take effect. This uncertainty continues to interfere with global market sentiment and supports gold's risk aversion attributes.
However, the US dollar rebounded slightly, partially offsetting the upward action energy of gold. Traders will focus on the upcoming U.S. ISM service industry PMI data to determine whether the economic slowdown has spread to the service sector.
Technical:
From the daily gold chart, the price has recently been between the middle rail of the Bollinger Band (3343.59) and the upper rail (3411.09), and has not effectively broken through the key resistance area. The overall trend remains within the medium-term oscillation channel, and no obvious trend direction is formed.
Recent K-line www.xmspot.combinations form a typical "swing-swing" pattern, indicating that the market has obvious pressure around the previous high of 3438.80, while the Bollinger lower rail at 3276.09 below provides support, showing a "box consolidation" pattern in the short term.
In terms of MACD indicators, the fast and slow line is running near the zero axis, DIFF and DEA are slightly golden crossed but the angle is flat, and the red column has limited momentum, indicating that the upward momentum is insufficient and a strong rebound structure has not yet been formed.
The relative strength index (RSI) remains at 54.81, which is in a relatively strong neutral area, indicating that the price lacks clear direction in the short term, and market sentiment is mainly wait-and-see. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether we stand firm above the Bollinger middle track, or fall back to the low support before the test.
Prevention of market sentiment:
The current sentiment in the gold market is cautiously optimistic. Traders have set high prices for the Fed's interest rate cut, pushing up gold's short-term rebound, but the dollar still has its resilience, limiting the upward space for gold prices. The indicators show that funds have not flowed significantly into the gold ETF, indicating that the market has not yet fully turned to defensive allocation.
Technical graphics present a typical "organization platform", indicating that the market is waiting for clearer policy or data guidance. The investment group still maintains its psychological interest in safe-haven assets, but lacks the willingness to chase high prices. In the short term, market sentiment may continue to be limited by external macro data fluctuations and policy expectations.
Future Outlook:
Bolster Perspective:
Analysts believe that if gold prices subsequently break through the upper 3411.09 line of Bollinger Bands and accompany the expansion of the MACD momentum column, it is expected to open up further upward space, with the goal of focusing on the previous high area of US$3450. If the Federal Reserve sends a clear signal of interest rate cuts, or the US economy continues to be weak, gold is expected to usher in a medium-term trend reversal and restart the upward channel.
Short perspective:
Analysts believe that if gold prices continue to be restricted from the 3400-3411 range and fall below the Bollinger middle track and moving average support, the short-term retracement trend may be launched, testing the lower track support of the US$3276. If the ISM service industry PMI is stronger than expected and the US dollar strengthens again, gold may return to bear dominance.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable to gold, can the technical side be promoted?" is carefully www.xmspot.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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